Covered Calls for Fun & Income

May 6, 2009

Volatility – HV vs IV

Have you been watching CROX? My gosh! It’s on fire! I entered this on 4/28 and paid 2.21 for the stock and sold the MAY 2.00 Call for 0.41. As of this moment, the stock is at 3.89, a 76% increase! Thinking that I should close this early, as I have in the past when other stocks made similar moves, I ran the numbers. To my surprise, it didn’t work out well at all. I would have to buy back the Call for 2.01 for a net debit of 1.60 and sell the stock for a net gain of 1.68 – I would only make 8¢! Why?

A closer look reveal the Bid/Ask spread on the MAY 2.00 Call is 1.60/2.01 – a rather large spread which was not there when I entered this Buy-Write (I wish I had recorded the actual numbers). But the most obvious indicator is the Implied Volatility (I have posted about this in the past – see April 18th post).

Remember, I want to stay away from Covered Calls that have a Historic Volatility on the stock that is less than the Implied Volatility on the option I am targeting. In this case, as of this writing, the stock HV is 175% (high enough as it is) and the MAY 2 Call is 421% – well over double the HV! That’s why I can’t close this early.

If we express the HV/IV relationship as a ratio, in this case we would get 1:2.4 – definitely a trade I would pass on if I were to do it today. I look for ratios of less than 1:1, more something like 1:0.75 (where HV=120 and IV=90 for example).

When I am looking to enter a trade, one of my several stops on the CallWriter Research Page is the H. Volatility link. Here I can quickly compare the 10, 20 & 30 day Historical Volatility and the Implied Volatility of the near the money options. If they are out of line (greater than 1:1) the potential trade is rejected immediately.

– Jeff

“I have opinions of my own — strong opinions — but I don’t always agree with them.” George Bush (1924 – )

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May 5, 2009

Is This Sustainable?

There have been some rumblings in the Just Covered Call Yahoo Group about the Bull Run that the market is in right now regarding a pullback. I am a follower of the S&P 500 index and it has just blown past a resistance point of 877 and closed at 907 yesterday. Breaking resistance soundly is a good indication that 877 will become the new support. There is another, weaker resistance at 943 and then the big one at 1,000 – which is a huge psychological barrier. Right now I am thinking the market will continue to rise overall, but that there will be a pullback or pullbacks and that we should not panic.

I still had some cash sitting around yesterday, so I jumped on 2 trades for May. I had several on a list that I compiled over the weekend, but they all gapped up big time on Monday and I don’t really like chasing stocks that do that.

I found Urban Outfitters (URBN) on CallWriter’s NASDAQ 100 list around noon with a MAY 20. It has just recently broken out of a consolidation pattern, has healthy financials and has a Technical Rating of 100% Buy – a number that I have never seen before. My only point of concern is their earnings announcement the day before expiration.

My second trade was found on the S&P 100 list. About the only good news (relatively speaking) coming out of Detroit is Ford Motor Company (F), so I stepped in with a MAY 6.00. When I told my wife, she said “WHAT!?” Come on, they even outsold Toyota last month! Although their chart has some huge gaps in it, I believe the sentiment in this country is to back a US automaker and the result will be an increase in Ford’s stock price – but I have been wrong before. There is other data to back this up, however, such as a rating of 96% Buy, heavy accumulation, no earnings to worry about for May, broke 200 EMA and the HV/IV ratio is healthy.

I also rolled my underwater UAL Corporation (UAUA) from a MAY 5 to a JUN 5. The stock made a healthy bullish move yesterday and with Swine Flu now occupying less that 7/24 coverage, the airlines should get a pop. With that in mind, I didn’t want to get assigned early and take the 7.8% loss and by rolling I reduced my loss to 3.68%. Eventually I will work this one out to a gain, but it may take a while.

If you look at my Trading Plan, you will see that my allocation rule is to not put more than 10% of my account into any one trade (or industry for that matter), and to keep 10% cash in reserve for emergencies. Take a look at my In Play page and you will see that I currently have 9 Covered Calls open. That means I am fully vested right now. Unless I close one of these early, that’s it (really, honest) for this month. However, I am keeping a close eye on CROX. Did you see what they did yesterday? Up 42% on just an analyst upgrade? With earnings on May 7th, I may close this one early if the gain is close enough to my original target so I don’t have to sweat out earnings.

– Jeff

“Believe in yourself! Have faith in your abilities! Without a humble but reasonable confidence in your own powers you cannot be successful or happy.” Norman Vincent Peale (1898 – 1993)

Date

BTO Stock & Price

STO Option & Price

Option Exp/Strike

Cost Basis

ITM Return

Downside Protection

5/4

URBN 20.02

URQED   1.07

MAY/20

18.96

5.47%

5.35%

5/4

F  5.84

FEI   0.30

MAY/6

5.55

8.07%

5.0%

3/23/09

UAUA 8.04

UALFA   0.45 #5

JUN/5

5.19

-3.68%

N/A

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