Covered Calls for Fun & Income

April 18, 2009

Expiration Week and IV

I usually don’t consider rolling short calls up/out until the last few days before expiration. Thursday I was analyzing my options when it struck me that some of the rolls to the next expiration month would result in very small net credit or even a net debit! I have never experience this before – after all time value should count for something. Then I noticed something rather disturbing: the Implied Volatility (IV) for the options of the 3 positions that I wanted to roll was extraordinarily high!

In particular, let’s discuss EXM – again!

I am pretty far underwater on this stock – my cost basis is much higher than the strike price of my short Call. That being the case, I wanted to roll my APR 5.00 to the MAY 5.00. Normally this results in a net credit, but not in this case. It actually would have cost me money to do this roll out. Then I noticed the IV of the APR 5.00 was over 350% and the MAY 5.00 was around 125%. The IV of the Puts was relatively normal in comparison.

Now IV does play a part in the Black-Sholes formula for option pricing (I don’t claim to understand the formula) but how much? Apparently quite a bit! This volatility means something!

So, what should I do? The stock has had a nice run up since its low of 3.00 on March 3rd and closed Wednesday at 6.78. High IV means that the market is anticipating an event for EXM and it could be soon. I didn’t want to roll any further out than the next month – it’s just too risky.

Now we are all very small players, the big guys control all the cards. Somebody knows something. What I read into the IV on the Calls was that EXM may make a significant move in a bullish direction very soon. I checked everywhere I could think of for any news that might give me a hint, but there just wasn’t anything out there. However, I was backed into a corner and didn’t want to get called out on the rest of my positions in EXM, so I made a decision – I bought back all those calls Thursday afternoon for 1.95!

This cost me a chunk of money (one reason why I keep at least 10% of my account in cash) but now I don’t have to worry about early assignments. As of Friday, the stock is at 7.54, so I already made back 0.76 of the 1.95 I paid for those Calls. What I will do is watch for the right time to either sell the stock outright if it rises above my Cost Basis or write another set of Calls against it if it gets weak and goes flat or pulls back again.

My lesson learned is this – for positions that are deep ITM, I will not longer wait until the last few days prior to expiration to roll up/out positions that I either want to keep or are too far underwater and ITM. Of course the best position to be in is to be profitable and ITM and have your shares called away.

Monday night I will post my results for APR expiration.

– Jeff

“The wise are instructed by reason; ordinary minds by experience; the stupid, by necessity; and brutes by instinct.” Cicero (106 BC – 43 BC)

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