Friday Expiration

Not too surprisingly, not all my open positions are ITM or making me rich. On the other hand, not one of them is killing me either. Overall this is a good thing. Of the 8 positions that are expiring this Friday, 3 are ITM (AFL, CROX, TXT) and 5 are OTM (F, URBN, SOHU, HOLX, GERN). Is this a concern? Well, I would like the see the numbers reversed, but we do have 3 more days of action before Friday.

The big disappointment is Ford (F). When they announced they were offering another 300 million shares, it immediately diluted all existing shares – so I took a hit on that one. Overall, though, I know this will turn profitable as I sell more Calls against it.

There is a temptation to roll one or all of the OTM positions to next month, but that would violate my rules and it wouldn’t really make any sense. Although it would bring in premium this week, it would also incur additional trading fees that would dilute the overall credit. Besides, the market knows that Covered Call traders roll during this period, and will capitalize on this at our expense. Better to wait until next week – and probably later in the week – as prices make some pretty strange moves early in the week.

I also like to watch the stock price action for a few days. There have been times, enough of them to be valid statistically, that the stock has made a move up and hit the strike price of the previous Call. At that point, I will just sell the stock and move on to new opportunities (see JAVA as an extremely sweet example of this on my Closed 2009 page).

Stay tuned, as this could be a very interesting and exciting expiration.

– Jeff

“Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes.” Oscar Wilde (1854 – 1900)

New Positions and Update

I used to get on an airplane every Monday and fly to my work location, and then fly back on Friday. I had a lot of exposure to all sorts of people and frequently got ill. Now I work from home, thank God! This whole Swine Flu is getting too much exposure in my opinion. Hmm… Maybe I should start a blog on it?

So far this month my open positions are doing well – with 5 currently ITM and only 2 OTM.

Friday I took some of my cash and opened 2 new positions: one on Hologic, Inc (HOLX) and the other on SOHU.com (SOHU). Both will produce a fine return for 2 weeks of holding if they finish ITM on the 15^th. My only concern is earnings on Monday for both of them, but they are currently showing some very good strength.

– Jeff

“Advertising may be described as the science of arresting the human intelligence long enough to get money from it.” Stephen Leacock (1869 – 1944)

Date	BTO Stock & Price	STO Option & Price	Option Exp/Strike	Cost Basis	ITM Return	Downside Protection
5/1	SOHU 56.31	UZKEK 4.00	MAY/55	52.31	5.14%	7.27%
5/1	HOLX 14.77	QHXEC 0.77	MAY/15	14.01	7.07%	5.13%

New Positions – AFL, CROX

It’s a crazy market and crazy times right now. Who knows what effect the Swine Flu will have on the markets or what sort of whacked out news will come from Washington, NY, Detroit or California. How the heck can GM avoid bankruptcy while selling cars that THEY are willing to make the payments on if you lose your job? My God, what is going on? All we can do is follow the plan until it doesn’t work any more and then adjust.

The two trades I entered today taped me out for May expiration. My remaining cash is about 10% of my balance, so I will enter into a monitoring mode and watch for opportunities to possibly exit one of my positions early.

AFLAC is a very good company even though they are in the insurance industry. Their offerings are unique and don’t seem to be affected by the financial crisis as much as other insurance companies. AFL was on the CallWriter High Volatility list and I had a choice of writing a 28 Call for a higher return or the 27 Call for less risk – I chose the less risk route. Earnings are due tomorrow, but they have historically reported in-line and that is what I expect tomorrow with little effect on the price.

Crocs is a different story (CROX was found on the CallWriter Under $10 list). A real high flyer a year ago – never could understand why. Comfortable as they might be, their shoes are butt ugly! Technically they are on a solid run with some accumulation going on. Even though their earnings are on May 5^th, I figure it would only take me 3 months to recover if their price drops to 1.50. From the fundamental perspective, they have a B+ financial score, earnings surprise last quarter of +28% and a technical buy rating of 88%. Since this is a relatively risky play, I am happy with the 20% downside protection.

As mentioned, that will be it for this month. Besides, my wife has kindly made an extensive ‘to-do’ list for me. Wasn’t that nice of her? Even though I probably won’t do any more trades, you know I will have plenty to say – so check back often.

– Jeff

“The English have no respect for their language, and will not teach their children to speak it.” George Bernard Shaw (1856 – 1950), Pygmalion (1916) preface

Date	BTO Stock & Price	STO Option & Price	Option Exp/Strike	Cost Basis	ITM Return	Downside Protection
4/28	AFL 27.99	AJOEU 2.94	MAY/27	25.06	7.74%	10.8%
4/28	CROX 2.21	CZLEN 0.41	MAY/2	1.81	8.49%	20.5%
4/27	TXT 11.29	TXYEJ 1.41	MAY/11	9.89	11.22%	12.8%
4/24	AKAM 19.41	UMUED 0.96	MAY/20	18.46	8.34%	4.9%
3/23/09	UAUA 8.04	UALEA 0.40 #4	MAY/5	5.63	-7.79%	N/A
3/9/09	USO 27.65			26.10		5.6%
3/3/09	GERN 7.94	GQDEU 0.44 #3	MAY/7.5	6.94	7.1%	N/A

New Position – TXT

Textron sucked me in again! If you look at my closed trades, I lost money on this, but it was all completely my fault. I did something really stupid and wrote a Call below my cost basis last month. It ended up trapping me on a very good stock. So this time I am playing this the right way.

TXT appeared on the CallWriter $10-$20 list with very solid downside protection. Fundamentally and technically, this is a very good stock and passed 5 of my entry criteria, with the exception of the earnings date, which is in two days on 4/29. On 4/9 rumors spread regarding an acquisition and the stock has held up very well since. I am assuming a negative to neutral earnings will not have much of an effect on the price and the acquisition will take weeks or months to finalize.

With that in mind, I entered a slightly ITM Covered Call with a strike of $11 and with May expiration (see below).

– Jeff

“I think it is good that books still exist, but they do make me sleepy.” Frank Zappa (1940 – 1993)

Date	BTO Stock & Price	STO Option & Price	Option Exp/Strike	Cost Basis	ITM Return	Downside Protection
4/27	TXT 11.29	TXYEJ 1.41	MAY 11	9.89	11.22%	12.8%
4/24	AKAM 19.41	UMUED 0.96	MAY/20	18.46	8.34%	4.9%
3/23/09	UAUA 8.04	UALEA 0.40 #4	MAY/5	5.63	-7.79%	N/A
3/9/09	USO 27.65			26.10		5.6%
3/3/09	GERN 7.94	GQDEU 0.44 #3	MAY/7.5	6.94	7.1%	N/A

New Position – AKAM

With only three weeks to go before expiration (it’s early this month, May 15^th), it was time to make some commitments and get serious about entering some trades. Earnings are presenting a challenge, but I really don’t want to sit on the sidelines, so I will have to take some calculated risks and be very selective on my choices. This means I may have to give up a few percent in returns, but that’s OK with me. So on Friday I entered a Buy-Write on AKAM (details in the Open Position table below).

Akamai Technologies is leading its industry, healthy financially, plenty of cash; really the only negative on this play is earnings on 4/29. Since all indications are bullish for this stock, I didn’t want it to run away from me. If earnings are good and the stock gaps up or moves up smartly, it may present an opportunity for an early exit for me. Otherwise I feel confident that it will finish ITM on 4/15.

This play appeared on the CallWriter NASDAQ 100 list. I still feel that the NASDAQ is outperforming most other indexes and there are several good choices on that list, but returns aren’t what they have been the list 2-3 months because volatility is decreasing. Don’t get me wrong, this is all OK with me. Even though the premiums are not what they were, the probability of a Covered Call on a good company finishing ITM is much higher under these conditions.

I still have not done anything with USO. I am hoping that it moves above 30 and I can sell the stock without writing any new Calls against it.

– Jeff

“The income tax has made more liars out of the American people than golf has.” Will Rogers (1879 – 1935)

Date	BTO Stock & Price	STO Option & Price	Option Exp/Strike	Cost Basis	ITM Return	Downside Protection
4/24	AKAM 19.41	UMUED 0.96	MAY/20	18.46	8.34%	4.9%
3/23/09	UAUA 8.04	UALEA 0.40 #4	MAY/5	5.63	-7.79%	N/A
3/9/09	USO 27.65			26.10		5.6%
3/3/09	GERN 7.94	GQDEU 0.44 #3	MAY/7.5	6.94	7.1%	N/A

Time to Start Shopping

I really hate earnings season for several reasons. First of all it plays havoc with prices and things get really crazy. Second, it prevents me from having open season on Covered Calls. I am averse to opening a new position with the company’s earnings announcement a few days or weeks away. That won’t stop me if many of the other criteria I use to enter a trade look good – but it sure makes me hesitate and think twice. Maybe that’s a good thing?

I spent part of yesterday prospecting for profitable positions. I can tell that volatility is beginning to drop (premiums are decreasing), and you can too by looking at the VIX (CBOE Market Volatility Index), which is currently at 38. Historically it has oscillated from 10 to 30 which generally speaking is an indication of a stable market and economy. Since September of last year, it has moved up and even peaked as high as 89 in October 2008. Of course this means huge premiums on options, but is also means huge risk on the underlying. Me? I prefer the VIX to hang out around 20-35 for the best balance of premium and risk, but you ultimately work with what you have rather than sit on the sidelines and wring your hands.

I have been surfing the Call Writer lists and found the greatest returns (and the greatest risk) on the stock in the Under $10 and $10-$20 lists. So here are some potential positions that I am considering right now – this is not investing advice 🙂

AKAM MAY 20 – relatively stable stock in a recent up-trend and wasn’t hurt too badly by the March bottom. Meets several entry criteria and earnings are 4/29. Nice return of 6.7% as of now.

GMXR May 10 – sort of a risky play but price is bouncing at support and Stochastic is heading up. Earnings are scheduled for 5/5 so I might put this on the shelf until then. Return 17.1%.

RVBD May 15 – I never heard of this company (you should check it out) and it is acting like a Dot Com type of play, so it’s purely speculative for me. This stock totally ignored the March bottom and is currently in a consolidation phase. Their earnings are scheduled for today, but I will not make any decision until tomorrow. This one should be very interesting to watch. Return 11%.

That’s the short list for now. I still have USO to think about, but I won’t make any decision now unless it makes a big move up.

I mentioned Apple Computer on the last post and it did report good earnings and is up nicely this morning – again.

I also mentioned that I was seriously thinking of moving my blog from Word Press Hosting to self hosted version. I have done some testing and it ‘seems’ simple enough. My concern is the URL change for the faithful. I think there are some workarounds for that and I will be checking them out.

Be patient and chose your plays wisely.

– Jeff

“Technology is dominated by two types of people: those who understand what they do not manage and those who manage what they do not understand” Putt’s Law